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April 14, 2006
War Games Urge Caution on Any Military Move Against Iran
by Faithful Progressive
As the war in Iraq was just starting to unfold in March of 2003, Fred Kaplan at Slate wrote a great piece setting forth how the Iraq insurgency had been predicted in official US military war games. But, true to form, the Pentagon brass didn't want to hear these discouraging results. War-Gamed: Why the Army shouldn't be so surprised by Saddam's moves:
(Lt. Gen. William) Wallace said, "The enemy we're fighting is a bit different than the one we war-gamed against." In fact, however, militia fighters did play a crucial role in a major war game designed to simulate combat in Iraq—but the Pentagon officials who managed the game simply disregarded or overruled the militias' most devastating moves.
Now, writing in the May Atlantic, James Fallows has a piece about the war games associated with a potential military action against Iran. The results are similarly daunting for those who are rattling sabers in that direction. Let's hope the Pentagon is listening this time--neither our beloved US troops nor the rest of the world can not afford another misguided American military action.
The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq:
The experts disagreed on some details but were nearly unanimous on one crucial point: what might seem America’s ace in the hole—the ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations in a pre-emptive air strike—was a fantasy. When exposed to “What then?” analysis, this plan (or a variant in which the United States looked the other way while Israel did the job) held more dangers than rewards for the United States. How could this be, given America’s crushing strength and wealth relative to Iran’s? There were three main problems:
* The United States was too late. Iran’s leaders had learned from what happened to Saddam Hussein in 1981, when Israeli F-16s destroyed a facility at Osirak where most of his nuclear projects were concentrated. Iran spread its research to at least a dozen sites—exactly how many, and where, the U.S. government could not be sure.
* The United States was too vulnerable. Iran, until now relatively restrained in using its influence among the Iraqi Shiites, “could make Iraq hell,” in the words of one of our experts, Kenneth Pollack, of the Brookings Institution. It could use its influence on the world’s oil markets to shock Western economies—most of all, that of the world’s largest oil importer, the United States.
* The plan was likely to backfire, in a grand-strategy sense. At best, it would slow Iranian nuclear projects by a few years. But the cost of buying that time would likely be a redoubling of Iran’s determination to get a bomb—and an increase in its bitterness toward the United States.
That was the situation nearly two years ago. Everything that has changed since then increases the pressure on the United States to choose the “military option” of a pre-emptive strike—and makes that option more ruinously self-defeating.
Posted by Faithful Progressive at April 14, 2006 12:18 PM
Comments
Haven't we messed up the middle east enough already?
Posted by: JP at April 14, 2006 04:22 PM
Greetings,
As a Vietnam veteran and an amateur military historian, I am appalled at the arrogant and ignorant behaviour of the Bush Administration. It's as if history doesn't exist for these people. I can't tell you how many times throughout history has the same set of circumstances led to the downfall of a republic or an empire.
As a Christian, I am morally appalled at the unprincipled and amoral attitude of this administration. While I do believe that at times it has been tragically necessary to wield the sword this is NOT one of them.
The Iraq War is criminal on so many levels.
God bless and protect the good men and women who are over there.
Posted by: Frank Frey at April 14, 2006 10:33 PM
My son spent 14 months in Iraq and it looks like he will be going back some time soon. He tells me that the troops know that they are fighting the for business interests of the New World Order and not for freedom. He was even asked if he would kill his family if ordered to do so. What kind of Army do we have? He is a professional and will support the Administration, even if it is wrong- I can't talk him out of it.
We have no more right going into Iran than we did in Iraq. We talk about WMD and disruptive influnce in the Mid-East and overlook the biggest disruptive influnce there is - Isreal! After WWII the Jewish people from Europe did not win their homeland, they took it by force.
Our Administration consideres itself to be Christian but I don't think so.
Posted by: George J. Couch at April 15, 2006 12:53 AM
I would disagree about Israel. The formation of the state of Israel is a very complex and involved subject, involving international politics, guilt over the holocaust, religious beliefs, and many other seemingly unrelated items. Both violence and justice are part of the mix as well.
I would agree that the presence of Israel is disruptive, but what would be the solution? Many of the people in that country were born there, and they have as much right to live there as non-Native Americans have to live here! Abandoning the nation of Israel would lead to many deaths.
There are people on "both sides" working for peace and a just settlement of the situation. They are the people we should support. The militants on both sides are wrong and should be opposed. Blaming one side or the other now is an exercise in futility and error.
Posted by: Bob Bowers at April 15, 2006 03:37 AM
We went into Iraq, which had virtually no chance of creating nukes in the immediate future. Now our military is vastly over stretched, our global credibility is gone, and Iran, which was a much greater potential nuclear threat than Iraq, is now becoming a nuclear player.
I often finding myself with no recourse other than cynicism whenever dealing with the administration. It seems like everytime I look at the media I find myself glad that Bush won reelection, because now he and his administration can stew in their own mess and create the will for much deeper and profounder change next time around.
As for Israel, I agree that it is a very complex issue with more than enough blame and sympathy to give each side. I agree with Bob that the most appropriate action in that regard is to seek out and support people on both sides working for peace and a just solution.
Posted by: john g at April 15, 2006 04:17 AM
Is it too much to hope that the abysmal failure of the Bush administration in Iraq might dissuade the people who've supported him in the past from supporting him on his plan for Iran? Are there any Republicans in Congress, minus the absolute nut jobs, many of whom are soon to lose their seats, who will risk coming out in favor of this madness?
One thing I hope happens now is that Iraq (and, now, Iran) finally will become the defining factor that it should have been in 2004. In that election, we allowed the right to put forth a lot of issues that were FOR THE TIME, simply rhetorical. They were, considering the immediate importance of Iraq, sort of non-issues, and we should never have taken the bait. I hope we've learned something from it that we'll use this time.
This is not saying that there are not other important issues. I live in Louisiana, and saw firsthand how disingenuous this administration was in the handling of the aftermath of Katrina, and, believe me, I know how people have been harmed by this administration. Even so, a candidate for a Senate seat from Wyoming, for instance, isn't going to get votes talking about Katrina. Iraq
is the winning issue, I think, and we should let Rove's spin machine take the attention away from it.
If the house is on fire, no sane person expects you to run in to fetch the piano. Remember, things were better on all fronts under Clinton, but it was the economy that he ran on. You might remember the note he claims he wrote to himself during his first run: "It's the economy, stupid." I'm saying, for 2006 and 2008, it's Iraq. As for the Christian Left, I think the best thing we can do to help is to continue to in fact be like Christians and put forth an all-inclusive, merciful and compassionate world view. We're needed in that way. Like I've written here many times before, there are lots of people of faith who've been disenfranchised by the Christian Right, but don't know there is a Christian Left.
Posted by: GPope at April 18, 2006 04:38 AM
That should say, we should NOT let Rove's machine distract us. Isn't the "preview" button a marvelous thing? Maybe I should use it.
Posted by: GPope at April 18, 2006 04:54 AM
I love it when people say it was better when clinton was president. It shows the true nature of an individual on choosing ignorance. Clinton’s presidency could be called a “pleasure bubble presidency”. He had/has so much power around him that anything negative like using the White House for pimping chicks, would fall off of him like butter on a hot skillet. The media did nothing but praise him except for the obvious things that they could not spin. It is one thing to be ignorant (I know, i know, Bush is ignorant) but it is a different thing to CHOOSE to be ignorant.
When speaking to someone with the "liberal" mind set, it seems like they live in a world of THINKING instead of KNOWING. These are two completely different realities which can be described as the north and south end of a magnet. Instead of waiting until the president is out of office or after the war has passed, they try to do what they THINK is best and attempt to remove the leader of their own country. They would rather kill the many for the few then kill a few for the many. They THINK they know the consequences of doing such actions and how it could do more harm then good. When speaking to this type of individual they have such good intentions but unfortunately most of their actions could be considered to be insane. If they want to believe it or not, they are assisting the terrorist and should be taken out the same as the islamic army. Christians that live in this type of reality is destining for hell if there is no PROGRESS in the way that they live for Christ. That does not mean pick and choose what you would like to follow out of the Bible. If you are of that mind then hear my words. Iraq is not in a Civil War but we are and believe me, there are more people that live in the KNOW reality then in the THINK reality. Now here is the twist, there are more people globally that live in the THINK reality then in the KNOW reality. Scary.
Posted by: outsider at April 18, 2006 08:36 PM
Is it really "Knowing", or blindly following the dictates of people who only want you to believe something so you stay under their control?
I'm tired of being told I'm going to hell by people who think they KNOW everything. This I KNOW- THEY'RE wrong.
I see people who condemn others all the time at school- they've driven so many people from Christ that it is heartbreaking. I, my wife, and my Christian friends have to spend a fair amount of time undoing the damage they do to people's souls. They KNOW they're going God's will by preaching at the kids- but they are also WRONG.
You can't insult or offend someone into the Kingdom of God!!!! Guilt-tripping them is just as bad!
It rather reminds me of situations I've read about in the early Church. A group of heretics, believing they were doing God's work, would deliberately goad the Romans into persecuting Christians. The Heretics got their wish (they got to "make a stand for Jesus"), but the real Christians suffered severe persecution. The real people were just quietly living their lives for Christ... and would have not gone through persecution if it hadn't been for the offensive antics of the heretics.
Persecution doesn't always strengthen the church- it also tends to lead to fanaticism and harshness, and a "them or us" mentality.
I don't see that much difference between those heretics and today's fundamentalists- and it is my opinion that the fundamentalist churches are the closest any Christ-speaking group can get to the "church of the anti-christ".
Salvation comes from a personal relationship with God, and that relationship is made possible by Christ's redeeming action on the Cross. It is a gift of Grace- and not of works.
It is NOT based upon "KNOWING".
I would rather be around people who think about what they are doing and why (it's called self-examination- you should try it!), than people who blindly act without thought because they "KNOW".
Posted by: Bob Bowers at April 18, 2006 10:43 PM
Amen,amen!!!
Posted by: Jim at April 19, 2006 04:12 AM
**“Is it really "Knowing", or blindly following the dictates of people who only want you to believe something so you stay under their control?”
--Very interesting… But unfortunately you still not see the point. You are relating “Knowing” things with blindly following people. In this case you do not truly “Know” but “Think” that the person you are following or listening to is right without searching for the truth yourself. Christ warns use to watch out for false prophets.
**“I'm tired of being told I'm going to hell by people who think they KNOW everything. This I KNOW- THEY'RE wrong.”
--There you go. You said it perfectly. “Who think they KNOW everything” which should read, “THINK they know everything”. For example: If you are gay and someone in the church states that you are going to hell if you continue on that path then they would be correct. Specific facts like that are KNOWN facts. People that live in a THINK reality think they know best and believe that it is ok. Sure God will forgive you but you will suffer the ramifications of your actions because it is not ok. So Christians are called bigots because the gay community, “THINK” they know best.
**“I see people who condemn others all the time at school- they've driven so many people from Christ that it is heartbreaking. I, my wife, and my Christian friends have to spend a fair amount of time undoing the damage they do to people's souls. They KNOW they're going God's will by preaching at the kids- but they are also WRONG.”
--All I have to say again is these are not people who KNOW they are doing right. They THINK they are doing the right think. Listen, everyone does both but it does not mean that they ARE both. It is more like how they live day to day. If you inform a kid of the Commandments that the Bible teaches and do this as you would an adult, then yes, that is wrong. If you teach them as the child that they are then that would be right. The intent is there but unfortunately hell is paved with them.
**“You can't insult or offend someone into the Kingdom of God!!!! Guilt-tripping them is just as bad!”
--You are 100% correct, BUT, if informing them of the truth and their wrong doings in a calm and compassionate manner then that would be good. If you end up have a guilt-trip then that is unfortunately the outcome of your sin so don’t blame the messenger.
**“It rather reminds me of situations I've read about in the early Church. A group of heretics, believing they were doing God's work, would deliberately goad the Romans into persecuting Christians. The Heretics got their wish (they got to "make a stand for Jesus"), but the real Christians suffered severe persecution. The real people were just quietly living their lives for Christ... and would have not gone through persecution if it hadn't been for the offensive antics of the heretics.”
--Well again watch out for false prophets. Also, Christians should not “just quietly live their lives for Christ”. That is my opinion on how I understand Christ’s command to share the Word. They NEED to be active especially in today’s world.
**“Persecution doesn't always strengthen the church- it also tends to lead to fanaticism and harshness, and a "them or us" mentality.”
--You are right. Persecution only makes the religion more physical like fanaticism. But at the same time if you are a fanatic for your religion, it does not mean your religious is being persecuted. Kind of like the muslim faith. It is taught to be physical with people outside their religion. The rest of the world then condemns it and now the religion is being persecuted. Which then strengthens their cause and fuels the fire and you have pessimists that say it is the religion of peace. Any religion, group, or country that forces people to believe what they believe by killing people should be removed from society.
**“I don't see that much difference between those heretics and today's fundamentalists- and it is my opinion that the fundamentalist churches are the closest any Christ-speaking group can get to the "church of the anti-christ".”
--If you are referring to ALL of the denominations that separated from the Catholic Church then you would be correct. It was done to separate the Church just like the devil wants. Now, the churches are arguing among themselves and calling each other the “anti-christ” church. I fell from the Church and when I came back I was still upset with the Catholic Church so I went to a few denominations and non-denominations. Unfortunately they seem to pickers and choosers which is why they fell from the Church in the first place. Then I realized the Catholic Church is not going to be perfect because it is made of humans that sin. The reason I went back is because it has direct lineage from Peter. If I leave I break the Church, if I stay I could profess Christ’s Word and possibly help the Church instead of hurt it.
**“Salvation comes from a personal relationship with God, and that relationship is made possible by Christ's redeeming action on the Cross. It is a gift of Grace- and not of works.”
--Yes, but “works” prove/show your faith and acceptance.
**“It is NOT based upon "KNOWING".”
--Of course it is. If you go to work, do you KNOW your home is not burning down, or, do you THINK the house is not burning down? It is impossible KNOW because you are not there. If you call a friend that can see the house then you would KNOW. Simply because you “THUNK” and it happen to be true does not mean you “KNEW” it to be true.
**“I would rather be around people who think about what they are doing and why (it's called self-examination- you should try it!), than people who blindly act without thought because they "KNOW".”
--See class, here is a perfect example of hypocrisy. Someone complaining about others “THINKING” they know better about them and then turning around and “THINKING” they now better about me. So that way you KNOW, I have been told I should talk to someone because of how much I examine myself. I don’t believe i should because it is vital to examine ones self. But many people do not because they do not like what they see. So they examine someone else, get a false impression because they do not know their history and then turn around and feel better about themselves because “they are not that bad”. On the contrary they are worse.
I really hope this helps you understand my point when I refer to someone that lives in a “KNOWING” reality then a “THINKING” reality. Now again, do not twist my words. I believe it is vital for one’s survival to THINK.
Posted by: outsider at April 19, 2006 04:44 PM
Outsider,
If you are so concerned about not "picking and choosing" what parts of the Bible to follow, how can you support the war in Iraq and even (I think) urge violence against "liberals?" Haven't you read Matthew 5:38-48?
Posted by: Deren Kellogg at April 20, 2006 04:54 AM
For one I am not sure who you are speaking to when you say i "pick and choose" parts of the bible to follow. I say follow the teachings of Jesus Christ because I am a Christian. I support the war because i believe there is an enemy out there that does not want me to believe in Christ and would like for me die. I say bring it on. Unfortunately Christians are fighting two fronts, the commies and muslims.
Now as for the passage you try so desperately to throw at me. I believe this to be a lesson or Command about revenge. Why don't you use the passage about the guard that was trying to arrest Christ and got his ear chopped off? That would be closer in argument. Iraq is not an act of revenge no matter how you try to twist it. It is self defense. Yes, self defend Christ. If my government tries to eliminate an enemy that would like to “kill or convert” then I say let caesar do so. The Catholic Church tried it and it did not last because that is not what our faith teaches. The muslim faith teaches this. If I get punished by God because I killed a mulim or a liberal in “SELF DEFENSE” then I will accept it.
At the same time brother, I am like you. I don’t like all of this killing, death, starvation, hatred, chaos, disrespect, etc. We strive to live like Christ when we choose to be Christians. But what you have to understand is we are human and not the Son of God. Some people believe death is needed a times to preserve life. Unfortunately we are at that stage in history again because of your allies in iran.
Posted by: Outsider at April 21, 2006 09:38 PM
I find your "Allies in Iran" comment to be truly offensive. I don't agree with anything they want to do. Just because we don't agree with you doesn't mean that we're followers of evil. Truly, I find this to be a "us or them" mindset, and it's wrong.
You completely miss the boat about the scripture where the guard had his ear cut off. Jesus ordered the weapons to be put down. He willingly placed himself in the hands of his oppressors. I think that if you read what happened, it was done to fulfill scripture. It had nothing to do with self defence.
There are much better arguments for self defence in the scriptures.
I am not your enemy. I disagree completely with many of the things you believe, and I would disagree with you publically if need be (I'm doing so here). I do not wish you harm. Yet, you state you're willing to kill liberals in "self defence". I also must say this. I believe in Jesus, called Teyose in my culture. I accept Him, and have known Him, since infancy. He IS the Son of God. We may have this in common. However, I also accept and agree with the Nicene creed.
It sounds like you'd like us to be afraid of you. That's not the actions of a true Christian. That's not acting in love.
I call upon you to repent of your hatred, your unwillingness to listen and learn, and your harshness towards other believers who don't think like you.
Posted by: Bob Bowers at April 22, 2006 12:36 AM
Remembering that the bible says.. no one is in power by mistake.. God is omnipresent and has let this government be in power. Just like all the worlds governments!
It doesn't mean we have to ever agree with what the government is doing.. but you have to keep in mind that they are their to serve a purpose!
Remeber to pray for the bush administration and keep my governments administration in prayer as well (Conservatives in Canada).
Remeber Jesus said to give ceaser what is caeser's! Praying for the government will bring much more results then insulting them on webpages.
Like i said.. i don't always agree with what they do.. but i know, they're serving a purpose!
Posted by: Jeff at April 27, 2006 06:17 PM
BOB,
Well, unfortunately agreeing and disagreeing with me does not make truth change. I do believe that the "liberals" are assisting the terrorist in an indirect way. Of course you would disagree, you are a libtard.
As for the reason why I used the "guard getting his ear cut off" quote because Simon Peter was trying to defend Christ and Christ stopped him because it was meant to be. How about if you worry your own boat and patch its holes.
As for what i understand as an implication to meet and debate, probably not. Unfortunately liberals are not stable so i will have to decline and debate here.
Well, i never once said i would like "you people" to fear me, fear only God. If you fear me then please don't because i love the sinner, not the sins.
I call upon you to repent you ignorance and practice what you preach like listening and learning. How about if you stand up for something? Like you, i can't wait to die and be put before my creator. But if there is going to be another crusade, and that is where we are headed, you will stand up and fight. I bet you would become muslim so that way they don't kill you. Then in your little hut, you will continue being Christian in the darkness.
And Jeff,
Of course everything and everyone has a purpose. As i recall, this government was suppose to be ruled by the majority which in this case is "Caesar". Point being, the people are Caesar, and the people plan on defending themselves from this communistic, libtard, islamo-faciest take over of the mind. They are workers of the devil… Believe it or not, the crusades are back.
Posted by: Outsider at May 1, 2006 06:39 PM
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